The 2008 elections have been the earliest starting Presidential elections in history. The Presidential hopefuls started to per sway people since very early on in the year. Now as the primaries for many states are just around the corner the heat in this race starts to build even more. On going polls try to predict the outcome of these primaries but the question is can polls really predict the outcome of the primaries? I believe that there is good chance that if more than one poll has similar predictions it ends up being correct and reliable.Many polls say that it is very like that Hillary
Clinton will be running against Rudy Guiliani in the 2008 Presidential race (shown at right). For most of the year these candidates have been neck to neck in popularity ratings. Currently Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton had been ahead Guiliani for three weeks straight but that is not true anymore. "National telephone survey shows former Mayor Rudy Guiliani leading Senator Clinton 46% to 44% in an early look at a general election match-up." However, people are always hesitant in trusting polls. The article Election 2008: Clinton vs. Guiliani and Thompson, states, "One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls." If polls carry outcomes that do not vary significant than chances are they are a good prediction of expected outcomes. Polls also show that Senator Clinton also has a good chance of running against Fred Thompson. The article, The 2008 Republican Primaries, talks
about the recent surveys done by Rasmussen Reports. They show, "that Rudy Guiliani earns 21% of the vote while Fred Thompson (shown at right) attracts 18%." These candidates are so close that in republican priories anything can happen. A weekly survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports show that when Hillary is put head to head against Thomson the results show her at 47% of popularity vote while Thompson only attains 45% of the vote.Rasmussen Reports conducts surveys on a daily basis to keep track of how these presidential candidates are doing with the people. Out of eleven surveys, seven surveys show that Guiliani and Clinton have managed to be within two points of each other. However Senator Clinton seems to have an advantage over Guiliani. "During the first eight sets of three-poll averages, Giuliani was "ahead" in seven and tied with Clinton in the eighth. Clinton has held the advantage in the last three updates of the three polls rolling average. She currently leads 47% to 44%." This is definitely good news for all those democrats who are in support of Senator Clinton. Furthermore Rasmussen Reports shows that "Currently, in the three poll rolling average, Clinton leads Thompson 49% to 41%." These numbers should not be surprising since these candidates are the most popular in people's list. These numbers show that Thompson is doing pretty well since this is the closest that he has been to Hillary Clinton since polls have been done.
Today an article was released which showed that Clinton is also attracting about 18% of the Republican women vote. However the downfall to this is that some national polls also say that she is loosing about 20% of the vote of democratic man. It is not really known the exact reason for this although there are speculations that this is a gender related issue. As talked about in previous posts there are still men in this country who do not think that a woman is ready to take such a leadership position. This off course is a controversial issue because the latest national polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports say "Just 13% of American voters now say it's Very Likely that Democrats will nominate a white male candidate for President. That's down from 24% in late August." These results would make people think that America seems to be preparing itself for a major change in leadership. One can assume that if this poll were to be correct that maybe the American people are opening their mind to change and begun to think that Senator Clinton could take this country into a progressive future. This can prove to be very true since there is only one white democratic male candidate pulling in double-digit popularity ratings, John Edwards. Surveys since August have shown that about 76% of the country has said, "They are willing to cast their Presidential vote for a woman." Furthermore about 79% of voters say they are willing to vote for an African American. The most open to the idea of voting for a candidate who is not a white male seem to be majority voters under the age of thirty. This can mean that these candidates are doing something good by campaigning with the youth of America.
Whatever the results are, these elections will be something to talk about for years to come. There is so much unprecedented being seen here. The amount of money spent during this election seems will be reaching breaking record numbers. We have the first female
running for president as well as the first African American. We have also seen that candidates started campaigning so early in the year. Voters have certainly been viewing and hearing so much publicity on these candidates in hope that there decision the day of the primaries will be so much easier. Now all we have left to do is hope that the best man or woman for the job wins and that they can better guide this country and our citizens.
1 comment:
When reading your blog post for this week I was surprised by the statistics that you presented about the upcoming Presidential Primaries. You stated, “That 76 % of Americans were willing to vote for a female and 79% of Americans were willing to vote for an African American.” Your use of statistics helped solidify your argument and was very effective at getting the message across to the reader. Overall, I know very little about politics but your article was easy for me to read and I got a general idea of the direction of the 2008 Presidential Elections. I think it is very positive that Americans are willing to expand their idea of what a President can be besides a white male. You also raised the point that, “The most open to the idea of voting for a candidate who is not a white male seem to be the majority voters under the age of thirty.” In the past it has been said that the youth of America seems to be reticent about participating in political elections. Maybe that has something to do with the fact that the under thirty crowd is more open to what a president can be. Another statistic that you brought up that I thought had great relevance was that Hillary Clinton was gaining 18% of Republican Women’s vote, while she was losing 20% of Democratic Males. I had been wondering if women would vote for a woman and men would think twice. The question that remains is, “Is America willing to embrace a President that is outside of the norm in terms of gender and race.” The only thing that I thought your blog could use is more of your opinion on the topic and maybe not be so factual based all the time.
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